By: Zoran Savin, President, IAB Slovenia
During the holidays, I read a few texts about trends and announcements for this year. And just when I thought I was finished with this obligatory new-year’s chores, I was surprised by the news that it was already clear to everyone that the demand for smartphones is declining. It turned out to be the case even for Apple, which has so far been the undisputed ruler of the market, first and foremost with the premium products.
Additionally, if we take into account some of the articles about the slower growth of users of the world’s largest services, and the trench warfare for these users (and, of course, the money they bring) then it is clear that the wild and unlimited growth has come to an end. (Check the news yourself: Facebook’s growth continues to slow down; Silicon Valley is stalling out as the pace of innovation slows down; Netflix’s US growth is stalling; Alphabet’s money-making machine is slowing down; Suddenly, Google Looks Shaky.)
What does this mean for us?
The years behind us were interesting, first and foremost from the standpoint of growth. I’m not talking about economic growth, but about the growth of digital media, channels, users, gadgets, innovations, etc. And not just that. Some trends even overlapped, which led to “mega trends” of growth. This was the time when growth hacking buzzword appeared. It was the time when you could grow, without doing anything big, because everything around you was growing.
For me, perhaps the most important announcement is that there will be no such growth in the year that has just begun. There will be no growth of users, of devices, there will be no growth of penetration and similar things. If we take, let’s say, the number of Internet users in Slovenia, it is almost certain that this number will grow only for a couple of more years, although this growth is already fairly slow. Growth can be expected in Albania, Bulgaria, etc. A large part of the less developed world is still unconnected, and without investing in infrastructure this will not go so smoothly – and that requires time.
But it’s important to know that things are changing. Perhaps now is the best time for those who know to work well and smart. Growth hacking may become even more pronounced now. Announcements for growth in investment in digital advertising are still at an annual level of 10%, the number of channels and ways of advertising is still on the rise. There will always be some new services that will struggle for the existing users.
It will be necessary to roll up the sleeves and put knowledge to good use, not to say that it will be hard to go forward without some programmed solutions that enable better utilization of investments, even if they are based on artificial intelligence. What this means for each of us individually is something that every individual will know for themselves, but it seems to me that in creating goals and tactics for this year, it is important to have in mind all that was said above.
