A new analysis by WARC warns that a prolonged crisis in the Persian Gulf could significantly slow the growth of the global advertising market and put nearly $94 billion in expected new advertising investment at risk over the next 18 months.
According to the latest report, Global Ad Spend Forecast Q2 2026 update: Implications of the Gulf energy crisis, global advertising investment is still growing, but increasingly pronounced disruptions to energy flows and international trade are placing serious pressure on consumer spending and brand operations.
James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting at WARC and author of the research, notes that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is already acting like an additional tax on consumers.
“As the Gulf crisis enters its fourth month, global markets are attempting to limit the damage. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is increasing the cost of living and reducing real purchasing power. If the conflict continues or further intensifies, there is a risk of stagflation, with sectors such as travel, automotive and food particularly exposed to rising production costs and weakening demand,” McDonald said.
Under the baseline scenario, the global advertising market is expected to grow by 11.5% this year and reach a value of $1.39 trillion. This is higher than the March forecast of 10.6%, primarily due to the strong performance of digital platforms in the first half of the year.
However, if the crisis escalates further, the growth rate could fall to 8.3%, representing a loss of $39.6 billion in expected growth during 2026 alone. When projections for 2027 are included, the total amount of investment at risk rises to $93.7 billion.
Regional differences are becoming increasingly pronounced
The report shows that the consequences of the crisis are not evenly distributed.
Southeast Asia and Latin America are currently experiencing strong growth, but at the same time stand out as the regions most vulnerable to a further deterioration of the situation. Under the baseline scenario, Latin America is expected to record growth of 12.8%, but in the worst-case scenario that growth could fall to just 3.4%.
China is facing pressure from rising energy and transport costs, meaning that the expected 7.9% growth in advertising investment could slow to 5.3%.
By contrast, the US market is showing the greatest resilience. Supported by events such as the FIFA World Cup 2026 and the congressional elections, advertising investment is expected to grow by 9.5%, and even in the most adverse scenario would remain at a solid 7.2%.
A particular challenge is expected for the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain. Should the situation deteriorate further, their advertising market could slip into recession and record a decline of 0.2%.
Europe is not immune either. While the eurozone is forecast to grow by 5.6%, the worst-case scenario reduces this to just 1.8%. France, meanwhile, could fall into negative territory.
Travel, automotive and food under the greatest pressure
The travel and transport segment has emerged as the most exposed sector. It is the only major category for which a decline in advertising investment is already forecast at the global level, falling by 3.5%.
The automotive industry is also feeling the effects of a combination of higher production costs and more cautious consumers. In Germany, growth in automotive advertising investment could amount to just 1.9%, while under the worst-case scenario the market would shift into a decline of 4.2%.
The food sector is, for now, maintaining stable growth of 10.3%, but WARC warns that the full effects of disruptions in supply chains are likely to be felt only in the second half of 2026 and throughout 2027.
Digital channels remain more resilient than traditional media
The crisis could further accelerate the redistribution of budgets between media channels.
Linear television, already under pressure from changes in media consumption, is expected to decline by 2.7% this year under the baseline scenario. In the worst-case scenario, that decline could reach 7.3%.
In contrast, social media continues to maintain strong growth. Investment in this channel is expected to increase by 20%, while even under less favourable circumstances growth would remain at 17.9%.
Paid search, including solutions based on generative artificial intelligence, has proven to be the most stable channel. Even in the most adverse scenario, growth of 11% is expected.
According to WARC estimates, search, social media and retail media will continue to account for approximately two-thirds of total global advertising investment, while traditional media such as television, print and cinema will bear the greatest burden of any potential slowdown.
The full report will be available to WARC subscribers from 15 June, while a podcast dedicated to the research findings will be released on 18 June.
