This new analysis, which provides a comprehensive view of global advertising trade, is based on the latest ad spend data from 100 global markets, as well as projections of advertising investment patterns derived from over two million data points.
Key findings include:
- Growth forecasts for ad spending have been downgraded for this year (-0.9 percentage points to +6.7%) and for next year (-0.7pp to +6.3%), equivalent to a reduction of $19.8 billion.
- The risk of prolonged stagflation – and even recession – is increasing in key economies, exacerbated by new trade tariffs set to take effect in the second half of 2025. Automotive manufacturers, retail chains, and tech brands are the most exposed.
- Regulations pose an additional obstacle, as the EU tightens its stance on Google and Apple. Unresolved antitrust rulings in the U.S. against Google and TikTok also contribute to an atmosphere of uncertainty for media strategists.
- The global advertising market is expected to be worth $1.15 trillion this year, representing an absolute increase of $72.9 billion (+6.7%) compared to a strong 2024. Alternative modeling, based on the OECD’s pessimistic scenario, further reduces ad market growth to +6.4% this year.
