Traditionally, the weeks between Halloween and Christmas were known among advertisers as the “hard eight.” But shifting shopping behaviors and brands eager to capture consumer attention earlier have transformed the commercial calendar.
According to a McKinsey survey, more than a quarter (28%) of U.S. consumers, and 37% of millennials, had already started their holiday shopping before October. Only 11% planned to wait until Black Friday or later. Similarly, Experian found that 45% of shoppers began making purchases before November.
This accelerated timeline is largely driven by economic pressure. A Kearney Consumer Institute survey of 24,000 people revealed that 39% of U.S. consumers view everyday spending as the most stressful aspect of their lives – a 9% increase from last year.
For brands, early shopping trends present a challenge. If consumers are making purchases before holiday campaigns launch, advertisers risk missing out. “Now, the holiday shopping season starts in October. If your brand isn’t there competing during this time, you can be behind the eight ball,” said Phil Carney, manager of account management at Adroll, a digital marketing platform frequently used by e-commerce businesses for media buying.
The holiday period remains a major advertising window – retailers worldwide spent $46 billion on ads in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to WARC projections. In response to the growing “holiday creep,” many media agencies have begun pushing upper-funnel activity earlier in the season to reach and influence consumers well before peak shopping weeks arrive.
David Dweck, general manager at Go Fish Digital, noted that client spending in October was roughly 2.5 times higher than in previous years, though he didn’t share a specific figure. “We went into the cycle basically telling our advertisers to be prepared with multiple promo offers and to be ready to deploy them pretty quickly. We’re seeing very value-conscious consumers right now,” he said.
According to his statement to Digiday, Dan Rolli, chief investment officer at OMD U.S. noted that how early brands are pushing their budgets varies by category and that most advertisers aren’t necessarily increasing their total spend, but rather distributing it over a longer period.
Programmatic and media companies have also observed ad spend shifting earlier in the year. John Campbell, SVP of entertainment and streaming solutions at Disney, said brand partners began booking holiday campaigns as early as August, about a month ahead of the usual timeline. “People are thinking about it way earlier, and we’re seeing brands want to get their message out much earlier,” he noted.
Despite the shift, spending on lower-funnel channels like search remains concentrated around Thanksgiving and November, underscoring that Black Friday continues to be a dominant sales driver.
Pushing campaigns earlier in the season isn’t the only strategy brands are considering. While more shoppers are spending ahead of the holidays, buyers caution against “leaving demand on the table” during November and December. “Not being present can mean losing out on incremental purchases,” said Ashley Terpstra, media director at Collective Measures.
Despite a gloomy outlook reflected in 2025 consumer sentiment surveys, shaped by tariffs and political uncertainty, actual spending data tells a more optimistic story. “What someone says and what they do are sometimes two different things,” noted Rolli.
