The latest regional research conducted by Valicon reveals that citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as to some extent citizens of other countries in the region, have divided opinions about who should be the winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Additionally, there are differences in perceptions regarding the impact of these elections on international relations, particularly with the European Union.
The 2024 U.S. presidential elections will be held in early November, with the main candidates being Donald Trump from the Republican Party and Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party. This election cycle has attracted global attention due to the significant impact the outcome could have on U.S. domestic and foreign policy.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is no clear favorite, while Kamala Harris enjoys significant support in Croatia, and Trump in Serbia
According to the research, Kamala Harris enjoys the most support in Croatia, where 56% of citizens would prefer to see her as the President of the United States. Harris also has strong support in Slovenia, with 46% of the population favoring her as the next president compared to Donald Trump, whose support is not insignificant, standing at around 30%.
Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina are divided, with about one-third of the population equally preferring Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to lead the White House. The remaining third of the population is undecided or doesn’t consider the outcome of the U.S. election important. However, at the entity level, Kamala Harris enjoys much greater support in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while citizens of the Republika Srpska predominantly support Donald Trump and would like to see him as the next president.
On the other hand, Donald Trump has overwhelming support in Serbia, where almost half of the citizens would prefer him to lead America, while Kamala Harris has the lowest support among all the countries (13%). Nonetheless, Serbia also has the highest percentage of undecided voters (38%), indicating that Serbian citizens are either unsure about their preferred candidate or do not care about the outcome of the U.S. election.
A quarter of Bosnian citizens believe a Trump victory could negatively affect Bosnia and Herzegovina
Regarding expectations about U.S. foreign policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina after the election, the results show clear differences depending on the candidate.
Most citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina (71%) believe that U.S. policy toward Bosnia and Herzegovina will remain unchanged if the Democratic candidate (Kamala Harris) wins, while 18% think relations could worsen with Harris’s victory. Only 10% expect an improvement in relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina.
On the other hand, if Donald Trump wins, perceptions differ. A significant number of Bosnian citizens (26%) believe Trump’s victory could worsen U.S. relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the majority (57%) believe the policy will remain unchanged. However, 17% of citizens, predominantly from Republika Srpska, see a possibility of improved relations if Trump wins.
A Trump victory could significantly change U.S. policy toward the EU
The research also explored perceptions of how the victory of either candidate would affect U.S. policy toward the European Union. When it comes to Kamala Harris, most citizens in the region believe that U.S. policy toward the EU will remain the same, which is somewhat expected given the Democratic Party’s rule in the U.S. over the past four years.
On the other hand, Donald Trump’s victory could significantly impact a change in U.S. foreign policy. More than half of Croatian citizens believe that a Trump victory would worsen U.S. policy toward the EU. Slovenians share a similar view, while about 20% of Serbian citizens believe that U.S. policy could change, either for better or for worse.
When it comes to the Bosnian population, one-third believe that Trump’s victory would lead to a deterioration of U.S. policy toward the European Union, while almost 20% think the opposite, that relations would improve. However, nearly half of the population, or 48%, believe that U.S. policy will not change significantly.
These results indicate caution among Bosnian citizens regarding the impact of the U.S. elections on relations with their country. Kamala Harris, who enjoys more support in EU countries such as Croatia, is seen as a stable option likely to maintain the current status of relations. This could be linked to the continuity in foreign policy positions of Democratic administrations, which have historically shown more engagement in the Balkans.
On the other hand, Donald Trump, who has significant support in Serbia, is seen as a factor that could bring about changes, both positive and negative, due to his policy of reduced international engagement. This view is consistent with his first administration’s focus on domestic issues in the U.S. rather than active involvement in foreign policy in the region.
