When the ideal plan no longer exists: how UM Belgrade builds security in unstable years

In a year in which media budgets moved in short, unpredictable cycles, and plans changed faster than they could be approved, stability ceased to be a matter of control. Instead, it became a matter of meaning: how to make decisions when the market, technology and audience behaviour are changing simultaneously, often without clear signals and with ever less room for “safe” assumptions.

In such a context, UM Belgrade, a member of AMA Group, in 2025 built an approach that rejects the illusion of a perfect plan and relies on clear frameworks, flexibility and trust, in data, in technology, but also in human judgement. Rather than ad hoc reactions, the focus is on rational planning that allows adaptation without losing direction, even when the rules of the game change from week to week.

We spoke with Predrag Guberinić – Managing Director, Aleksandar Đorđević – Chief Innovation & Strategy Officer, Media Operations, Mihajlo Petrović – Regional Head of Digital, Dušan Grbić – Media Planner, and Svetlana Milanović – Chief Trading Officer for Media Operations, about what media planning looks like when the “ideal plan” no longer exists, why trust has become a strategic currency, and why audiences today do not react to a message, but to their own state.

Predrag Guberinić, Managing Director

1. If you had to describe 2025 as a year in which media budgets behaved like an air conditioner – sometimes “cooling,” sometimes “heating” – what was your biggest win in stabilising the temperature?

Media budgets in 2025 really did behave like an air conditioner constantly changing modes. Our biggest win was taking responsibility to “stabilise the temperature” through campaigns that delivered results. The focus was not on short-term, impulsive reactions, but on making secure decisions based on performance and clearly defined objectives. The Celebration campaign, which marked the return of Plazma to store shelves in 2025, is a good example of such an approach. Strategically led communication and media presence had a direct impact on sales and the brand’s return to a leadership position in the market.

2. What new kind of client panic appeared this year, and how did you turn it into a calm, rational plan for 2026?

I would rather use the word concern than panic. Concern emerged as a reaction to the slowdown in economic growth and complex socio-political circumstances, both globally and locally. Our response was strategic and innovative: through new models of collaboration, we enabled greater flexibility and predictability for clients. Instead of ad hoc moves, we introduced rational planning and clear frameworks, so that we enter 2026 with confidence and readiness, not defensively.

Aleksandar Đorđević, Chief Innovation & Strategy Officer, Media Operations

3. Which data point in 2025 shocked you the most – not because it was unusual, but because it shattered a belief the media industry held as sacred?

In a world and industry that are changing at an incredible pace, where trends become daily trending topics, little truly manages to shock us. I was surprised by the speed at which artificial intelligence has been adopted and very quickly integrated into everyday activities and the fulfilment of people’s basic needs. In Serbia, almost a fifth of the population has already replaced Google with AI when searching for content online.

Additionally, at a global level, personal advice is among the top reasons people use AI. I believe the level of trust we have developed so quickly towards artificial intelligence, in certain areas, is rather thoughtless.

This is further evidenced by occasional “scandals” involving even large and established brands, showing that no one is completely immune. The possibilities AI offers are brilliant and vast, and precisely because of that it is important to invest in it, cultivate the technology and make solutions as safe as possible. It is essential to understand the purposes and limits of every technology and technological product, and to meaningfully integrate them with expertise, human principles and the social context.

4. What is the smartest “small optimisation” you made this year that had a bigger effect than three large, expensive plans?

I consider the smartest “small optimisation” to be any decision that leads to a smarter allocation of resources, with the goal of achieving better results and improving the overall quality of service for clients. Often, such seemingly small changes have a greater effect than expensive and complex plans. In this sense, I would definitely single out the increased focus on advanced research, data and technologies, through which we discover entirely new ways to contribute to the growth of our partners’ businesses. I would certainly give priority to activities and decisions with long-term effects over the results of individual plans.

5. If you had to choose one channel that is the “quiet winner” of the region in 2026, which would it be, and what do others still not see?

I believe that for every category of “winner,” key criteria are both the speed of growth and the potential it carries. With that in mind, I would nominate content creators, who are less “quiet” and more “winners.” Global, regional and local trends in this respect are aligned: influencers are recording continuous growth in importance and increasingly occupy an essential place among communication channels, as well as in every relevant brand strategy. In addition, I would single out podcasts, whose consumption continues to grow significantly faster than the opportunities for brand collaboration. Assessing their potential can still be considered “quiet,” which is why we can certainly expect much more from this channel in the near future.

Mihajlo Petrović, Regional Head of Digital

6. Which algorithm in 2025 behaved like an “unpredictable teenager,” and how did you make it work for you anyway?

In 2025, the “unpredictable teenagers” were audience-targeting algorithms in the post-cookie era, burdened by new privacy rules. If I had to single out one true “unpredictable teenager,” it would be the Meta Ads algorithm, especially when it comes to the combination of Reels + Advantage+ campaigns. One day it delivers perfect results with minimal signals, and the very next day it rejects everything you thought you “knew.” It changes behaviour quickly, often without any logic, just like a teenager. We realised we could not fight this change, but had to adapt to it. How did we “make” it work for us? We stopped micromanaging it and started educating it through structure. Instead of frequent interventions, we focused on clear inputs: high-quality creative variations, precise audience signals and enough budget for the algorithm to learn. We monitor data from multiple angles, use different formats, but without daily optimisation. In other words, we realised that the algorithm in 2025 does not like control, but consistency and trust. When you give it a good framework and let it do what it is good at, it can surprise you with good results.

7. If you had to keep only one method of measuring campaign effectiveness in 2026, which would survive and why?

If I had to keep only one method of measuring campaign effectiveness, it would definitely be Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM).

Why? Because it provides the most reliable insight into the true, incremental contribution of all marketing activities to business results. In a world where privacy is increasingly important and we rely on less granular data, MMM is key for strategic budget optimisation and understanding the true synergy of channels, far beyond individual reports.

Dušan Grbić, Media Planner

8. Which media planning rule did you have to abandon this year because reality completely defeated it?

This year we had to abandon one classic rule of long-term and stable media planning, which подразumes clearly defined campaign timings, budgets and a fixed mix of media channels in advance. We had to let go of the idea that everything can be precisely planned ahead and that a plan will remain valid exactly as set from the very beginning, because reality was completely different. Unpredictable economic circumstances, frequent budget corrections and changes in client priorities meant that things were changing from week to week. Such dynamics required fast reactions and constant adjustments, which clearly showed us that such an overly rigid approach is no longer sustainable. On the contrary, a rigid plan in such conditions is often more of an obstacle than an advantage.

Instead, we shifted to a “step by step” approach, in which we continuously monitor the situation, react quickly and adapt on the go. The focus moved from the idea of an “ideal plan” to a plan that is flexible enough to quickly align with market conditions, media availability and real business needs, even when that means deviating from previously established planning rules.

Flexibility became the key to success and significantly more important than striving for some “perfect plan.” In short, we had to give up complete control and accept that sometimes “good enough now” is far more valuable than “ideal later.”

9. Which media combination did you discover completely by accident, and which turned out to be unexpectedly brilliant?

Through work and practical testing of different approaches, we noticed that television and digital achieve a strong and very effective synergy, especially when they are not planned strictly according to established patterns. In particular, digital proved to be a fast and flexible “booster” of television presence, significantly enhancing overall campaign performance. Although this combination is often considered standard and nothing “revolutionary,” budget limitations and a great deal of uncertainty required us to react quickly. TV provided weight and recognisability, while digital captured the moment, people’s reactions, comments and shares. That was when we realised that everything does not have to be perfectly synchronised to work. Sometimes it is enough for channels to “hit at the same time” and let the campaign breathe. This served as a good reminder that excessive control often limits, while flexibility opens space for better results.

The combination of television with social media and influencers stood out in particular, where influencers added an important “human tone” to messages coming from TV and helped communication not remain “just an ad,” but something the audience truly adopts, applies and actively discusses. This combination initially emerged from the need to compensate for limited reach, but in practice proved to be very effective in capturing audience attention and strengthening the brand message, often with better cost efficiency than initially expected.

Svetlana Milanović, Chief Trading Officer for Media Operations

10. Which negotiating sentence in 2025 brought you the most value for the client, and why will you never stop using it?

“Under what conditions would you be willing to accept this proposal today?”

This sentence will remain a permanent part of my negotiating arsenal because it democratises negotiations: instead of confrontation, it introduces cooperation and joint problem-solving, while at the same time giving the counterpart full control over the decision-making process.

11. What is the strangest, yet true, signal about audience behaviour you observed in a campaign – a signal that no one outside the buying team would even notice?

A strange, but completely true signal we noticed is that the audience does not react to the message, but to their own state at that moment.

In one campaign, we saw that the same ad, without any changes, could be almost invisible at one time of day and extremely powerful just a few hours later. As if we were not addressing the same person, even though it was the same person.

This is something the buying team recognises because it constantly “listens” to the rhythm of the audience, while from the outside it is almost unnoticeable. That signal showed us that attention is not a constant category; it turns on and off depending on the moment, mood and context in which the audience finds itself.